Japan's LDP Presidential election to be held on Friday
26/9/2024 6:12
In the race to become Japan's
next leader, young contender Shinjiro Koizumi has positioned
himself as a change candidate, but his veteran rivals Shigeru
Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi are the ones pushing policies that
could rock the boat diplomatically.
The Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for
almost all of the post-war era, will on Friday pick a new leader
to replace Fumio Kishida as prime minister.
That comes at a pivotal moment for Tokyo as it seeks to
deepen ties with long-time ally Washington and solidify a
perennially testy relationship with South Korea, in an effort to
present a united front against an increasingly assertive China.
Koizumi, 43, the U.S.-educated heir to a prominent LDP
dynasty, is promising to usher in a generational shift in
political leadership, but one that remains at ease with a U.S.
relationship that shapes Japan's foreign policy.
Koizumi is in a closely fought race with two experienced
candidates who appear more willing to push back against
Washington - former defence minister Ishiba, 67, who is fighting
his fifth and he says his last leadership election; and
Takaichi, 63, the nation's economic security minister.
"Among the current top three candidates, Koizumi would
probably be the most favourable if the U.S. had a say," said
Jeffrey Hornung, Japan Lead for the RAND National Security
Research Division. "He is young, and he doesn't have the
governing experience and so the easiest path is to move forward
with what's already working."
Koizumi demonstrated his close relations with Washington in
July when he spent a day surfing with U.S. Ambassador to Japan,
Rahm Emanuel.
While analysts say Koizumi would seek continuity, Ishiba
could seek to strike a more independent foreign policy from
Washington while Takaichi could revive historical animosity with
Seoul.
Some recent opinion polls show them ahead of their younger
rival among the LDP's party members who will decide Friday's
election, one of the most unpredictable in decades because of
the waning influence of powerful factions within the party and a
record nine candidates.
Whoever wins, the U.S. election in November could have a
bigger impact on Japanese-American ties, especially if any
second term for Donald Trump revives pressure on allies to pay
more for U.S. protection or subjects them to trade tariffs.
A spokesperson for the State Department said the U.S. was
looking forward to working with the next Japanese leader.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has faced
political backlash for pursuing security cooperation with Japan,
told Reuters he is confident that Kishida's successor "will
agree on continuing to further develop our bilateral relations."
A spokesperson for China's foreign ministry said Beijing was
willing to work with a prime minister that would promote a
"stable China-Japan relationship."
CONTENTIOUS ISSUES
None of the candidates are likely to abandon Kishida's plan
to double Japan's defence spending to deter China from using
military force in East Asia, or step back from an alliance with
the U.S. that has guaranteed Japan's security for decades.
But both Ishiba, a rare dissenter within the LDP, and
Takaichi, a hardline conservative, could complicate U.S. ties at
a sensitive time.
Washington is upgrading its military command structure in
Japan for the first time in decades, broadening security
cooperation into semiconductors and military technology, and is
pushing Japan-South Korea detente to help contain Chinese power.
"Ishiba might try to push the envelope on contentious
issues," said Nick Szechenyi, a Japan expert and deputy director
for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Among them is an agreement that governs the status of U.S.
bases in Japan that host the biggest overseas concentration of
U.S. forces.
On the campaign trail in Okinawa, Ishiba said he would seek
more oversight over how Washington uses those bases. He also
wants Washington to give Japan a say in how it would use nuclear
weapons in Asia.
Another of Ishiba's campaign proposals for Japan to lead the
creation of an 'Asian NATO' has already been dismissed as hasty
by the assistant U.S. secretary of state for East Asia and the
Pacific, Daniel Kritenbrink.
In an interview with Reuters, Ishiba also criticized U.S.
opposition to Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel,
a politically sensitive deal in a pivotal election swing state,
saying it unfairly cast Japan as a national security risk.
Kishida has declined to address an issue he says is a matter
for the companies involved to resolve and Koizumi has urged his
party colleagues to avoid making comments that could be seen as
interfering in the U.S. presidential election.
If Takaichi wins the leadership race and becomes Japan's
first female prime minister she could create problems for the
U.S.-led effort to pull Tokyo and Seoul closer together with her
promise to visit the controversial Yasukuni war shrine.
Japanese leaders in 2013 stopped going to the shrine, which
commemorates war dead including those convicted by an Allied
tribunal of war crimes after World War II. That followed
criticism from the U.S. and condemnation from South Korea and
other nations that view the site as a symbol of Japan’s wartime
aggression.
"She's the hope of the conservative LDP members now," said
Tetsuo Kotani, senior fellow at The Japan Institute of
International Affairs, a Tokyo-based think tank. "They are still
very much skeptical about the future of the Japan-Korea
relationship."
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