Iraq tries to avoid regional conflict

1/11/2024 6:03

        Nervously watching Israel's
        destructive campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, Iraq is working to
        avoid being drawn into the growing regional conflict as
        Iran-backed armed groups launch attacks on Israel from Iraqi
        soil, sources familiar with the matter say.
        
        Two decades after the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam
        Hussein, Iraq is experiencing relative stability with high
        revenue from oil sales funding a service-based agenda that has
        turned much of the country into a construction site.
        
        Iraq does not have diplomatic relations with Israel and
        Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government is wary of
        regional conflicts that could affect its delicate balancing act
        between Washington and Tehran, both states it is allied with.
        
        Axios reported late on Thursday that Israeli intelligence
        suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory
        in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential
        election on Nov. 5, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.
        
        There was no immediate Iraqi comment.
        
        Spillover from regional conflict has already resulted in
        months of tit-for-tat attacks between Iran-backed armed groups
        and U.S. forces stationed in Iraq and the region that only
        subsided after Iran intervened in February.
        
        Sudani's government has not been successful in a push to
        convince the Islamic Resistance in Iraq - a coalition of
        Iran-backed armed groups - to stop firing rockets and drones at
        Israel, according to four sources in Iran-backed armed groups
        and two government advisors.
        
        Two visits to Iran by Iraq's top security officials in the
        past two months, seeking Tehran's help to rein in its allied
        Iraqi factions, failed, the sources said.
        
        "The Iraqi delegation received a cold reception in Tehran
        ... The answer was: those groups have their own decision and it
        is their call to decide how to support their brothers in Lebanon
        and Gaza," said a senior Iraqi security official briefed on the
        visits.
        
        Baghdad turned to Washington, asking U.S. officials to
        intervene with Israel to prevent retaliation for the attacks,
        including one that killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded more
        than 20 on Oct. 4, the sources said, the first time such an
        attack has been reported to cause fatalities.
        
        "Washington was understanding of the repercussions of
        possible Israeli strikes in Iraq and pledged to help," said an
        Iraqi foreign ministry official.
        
        A spokesperson for the U.S. embassy in Baghdad did not
        immediately respond to a request for comment.
        
        Four militia sources said the Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba
        groups, which are leading the attacks on Israel, have warned the
        prime minister against pressuring them to halt their actions and
        vowed to continue their attacks as long as Israel continued its
        Gaza and Lebanon operations.
        
        The issue has divided parties in Iraq's ruling coalition,
        all of whom are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and view
        Israel as an enemy, though some differ over how involved Iraq
        should be in the regional confrontation.
        
        Shi'ite leaders discussed the risk of repercussions from
        attacks on Israel and possible Israeli retaliation during two
        meetings in October, said Ahmed Kenani, a Shi'ite lawmaker from
        the ruling alliance.
        
        Key players in the Shi'ite coalition view direct
        confrontation with Israel as counterproductive and potentially
        damaging to Iraq, according to four Shi'ite lawmakers.
        
        "Those groups who have the rockets and drones should go to
        Gaza and Lebanon to fight Israel rather than pushing Iraq
        towards destruction," said Iraqi PM adviser Abdul Ameer
        Thuaiban.
        
        Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful of the armed factions,
        said Israel and the U.S. would have to pay a price for Israel's
        strikes on Iran last week.
        
        Senior Iraqi security sources told Reuters ahead of that
        attack that any strike by Israel against Iran outside what the
        sources called the established rules of engagement could prompt
        pro-Iran armed groups to significantly expand their attacks on
        Israel and U.S. assets in the region.
        
        Mohammed Shummary, chairman of Baghdad-based think tank the
        Sumeria Foundation, said growing regional conflict risked
        pulling Iraq's Shi'ite Muslim parties, many of them heavily
        armed, into a confrontation that few initially had appetite for.
        
        "They are torn between maintaining their decision to keep
        Iraq out of the confrontation and their ideological and
        political commitments toward the Shia of Lebanon and the broader
        resistance axis, amid Israeli aggression that has crossed all
        permissible red lines," he told Reuters.
        
        "If the confrontation escalates ... this may not only mean
        the continuation of attacks on Israeli targets but also the
        potential involvement of additional factions in larger, more
        complex operations," he said.