Negotiators zero in on potential deal in Syria

20/1/2025 5:59

Negotiators are

zeroing in on a potential deal to resolve one of the most

explosive questions looming over Syria's future: the fate of

Kurdish forces that the U.S. considers key allies against

Islamic State but neighbouring Turkey regards as a national

security threat.



Diplomatic and military negotiators from the United States,

Turkey, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)

are showing more flexibility and patience than their public

statements suggest, a dozen sources told Reuters, including five

directly involved in the intensive web of discussions in recent

weeks.



This could set the stage for an accord in the coming months

that would see some Kurdish fighters leave Syria's restive

northeast and others brought under the authority of the new

defense ministry, six of the sources said.



However, many thorny issues need to be resolved, they said.

These include how to integrate the SDF alliance's well-armed and

trained fighters into Syria's security framework and administer

territory under their control, which includes key oil and wheat

fields.



In an interview with Saudi Arabia's Asharq News channel on

Tuesday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said the alliance's "basic

demand" is for decentralised administration - a potential

challenge to Syria's new leadership, which wants to bring all of

the country back under the government's authority after ousting

Bashar al-Assad last month.



Abdi indicated that the SDF has no intention of dissolving,

saying it was open to linking with the defense ministry and

operating according to its rules, but as "a military bloc".



Syria's new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected

that approach in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the

suggestion that the SDF remain one bloc "is not right."



The former rebels now in power in Damascus have said they

want all armed groups to integrate into Syria's official forces,

under a unified command. The SDF, when asked for comment,

referred Reuters to its commander's interview.



How much autonomy Kurdish factions retain likely hinges on

whether incoming U.S. president Donald Trump continues

Washington's longtime support of its Kurdish allies, according

to diplomats and officials on all sides.



Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions,

including his plans for some 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in

Syria. A Trump representative did not comment.



Any deal also depends on whether Turkish President Tayyip

Erdogan holds off on a threatened military offensive against the

People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia that

spearheads the SDF alliance.



Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers

Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the

Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by both

Turkey and the U.S.



Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that

Syria's new authorities "should be given an opportunity to ...

end the occupation and terror the YPG created", but he did not

say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching

an incursion.



A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said disarming armed

groups and the departure of "foreign terrorist fighters" were

essential for Syria's stability and territorial integrity, so

the sooner this happens the better.



"We are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest

terms during our contacts with both the United States and the

new administration in Damascus," the source said.







INTENSIVE TALKS



U.S. and Turkish officials have been holding "very

intensive" discussions since rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

(HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate, launched a lightning

offensive from their northwestern stronghold that deposed Assad

on Dec. 8, a senior U.S. diplomat told Reuters.



The two countries share a "common view of where things

should end up", including a belief that all foreign fighters

should exit Syrian territory, the diplomat said, noting Turkish

negotiators "have a very high sense of urgency" to settle

things.



However, the diplomat, who like some other sources requested

anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the talks were

"hugely complex" and would take time.



Parallel talks are taking place between the U.S. and both

the SDF and HTS, Turkey and HTS, and the SDF and HTS, officials

from all sides say.



Part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran,

Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds had been among the few winners

of the Syrian conflict, gaining control over Arab-majority areas

as the U.S. partnered with them in the campaign against Islamic

State. They now hold nearly a quarter of the country.



But Assad's fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions on the

back foot, with Turkey-backed armed groups gaining ground in the

northeast and the country's new rulers in Damascus friendly with

Ankara.



Turkey, which provided direct support to some rebel groups

against Assad, has emerged as one of the most influential power

brokers in Syria since his fall. Like the U.S., it has

designated HTS a terrorist group because of its al Qaeda past,

but Ankara is believed to have significant sway over the group.



Officials on all sides worry that failure to reach a

ceasefire and longer-term political accord in the northeast

could destabilise Syria as it seeks to recover from a 13-year

civil war that killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions

and drew in countries including Russia, Iran and Israel.



Dozens of people in northern Syria have been reported killed

since December in clashes between the Kurdish-led SDF and

Turkey's allies, and in cross-border Turkish airstrikes.



Failure to resolve the fate of Kurdish factions in Syria

could also undermine nascent efforts to end the PKK's insurgency

in Turkey.



The United Nations has warned of "dramatic consequences" for

Syria and the region if a political solution is not found in the

northeast.







POTENTIAL TRADE-OFFS



U.S. support for the SDF has been a source of tension with

its NATO ally, Turkey.



Washington views the SDF as a key partner in countering

Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has

warned will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities

in Syria. The SDF is still guarding tens of thousands of

detainees linked to the group.



Erdogan said on Wednesday that Turkey has the power to

"crush" all terrorists in Syria, including Islamic State and

Kurdish militants.



Turkey wants the management of camps and prisons where

Islamic State detainees are being held transferred to Syria's

new rulers and has offered to help them. It has also demanded

that the SDF expel all foreign fighters and senior PKK members

from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a way it

can verify.



Abdi, the SDF commander, has shown flexibility regarding

some Turkish demands, telling Reuters last month that its

foreign fighters, including PKK members, would leave Syria if

Turkey agrees to a ceasefire.



The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it

would agree to leave if the SDF maintains control of the

northeast or a significant role in joint leadership.



Such assurances are unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time

when the SDF is "trying to stay alive and autonomous" in Syria,

Omer Onhon, Turkey's last ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters.



In Ankara on Wednesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan

al-Shibani said the extensive U.S.-backed SDF presence was no

longer justified, and the new administration would not allow

Syrian land to be a source of threats to Turkey. Standing next

to him, his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, said it was time to put

anti-terror pledges into practice.



Abdi told Asharq News that he has met with Syria's de facto

leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to set up a

joint military committee to decide how the SDF would integrate

with the defense ministry. He described the meeting with Sharaa,

who heads HTS, as positive.



Abu Qasra, the defense minister, accused SDF leaders on

Sunday of "procrastinating" on the issue, saying "consolidation

of all areas under the new administration ... is a right of the

Syrian state."



The new leadership believes that allowing SDF fighters to

continue operating as a bloc would "risk destabilisation,

including a coup", a ministry official told Reuters.



Abdi argued that a decentralised administration would not

threaten Syria's unity, saying the SDF is not demanding the kind

of federalism introduced in Iraq, where Kurds have their own

regional government.



Some Syrian officials and diplomats say the SDF will likely

need to relinquish control of significant territory and oil

revenues, gained during the war, as part of any political

settlement.



In return, Kurdish factions could be granted protections for

their language and culture within a decentralised political

structure, said Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian

Liberal Party, which supports minority rights but is not

involved in the talks.



A senior Syrian Kurdish source acknowledged that some such

trade-offs would likely be needed but did not elaborate.



Abdi told Asharq News that the SDF was open to handing over

responsibility for oil resources to the new administration,

provided the wealth was distributed fairly to all provinces.



Washington has called for a "managed transition" of the

SDF's role.



The U.S. diplomat said Assad's ouster opens the door for

Washington to eventually consider withdrawing its troops from

Syria, though much depends on whether trusted forces like its

Kurdish allies remain engaged in efforts to counter any Islamic

State resurgence.



Trump's return to the White House on Monday has raised hopes

in Turkey of a favourable deal, given the rapport he established

with Erdogan during his first term.



Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdogan's role in Syria,

calling him a "very smart guy", and said Turkey would "hold the

key" to what happens there.



"The Americans won't abandon (the SDF)," said Onhon,

Turkey's former ambassador. "But the arrival of someone as

unpredictable as Trump must worry them in a way too."