Divided Ecuador presidential polls show likely win for Noboa

31/1/2025 6:20

Ecuador's President Daniel

Noboa looks set to win a full four-year term in the Feb. 9

election, likely after a runoff contest against leftist Luisa

Gonzalez, several polls show.



A runoff between Noboa and Gonzalez would be a repeat of the

2023 election, when Gonzalez led a first round but eventually

lost to Noboa, a business scion.



Noboa, 37, would win 47.1% of valid votes, not including

blank or void votes, compared to 39.5% for Gonzalez, according

to pollster Comunicaliza in a Jan. 25 survey. The online survey

of 5,217 respondents has a margin of error of 1.36%.



To win in a first round, a candidate must either get more

than 50% of valid votes or win at least 40% while being 10

points ahead of their nearest rival.



An Ipsos poll shows Noboa winning outright in a first round,

getting 50% of valid votes compared to 34.6% for Gonzalez. That

survey had 2,000 respondents, a margin of error of 2.2% and was

conducted from Jan. 20-24.



"We are on the point of burying the mafias forever, of

burying those who have stolen our dreams and put the brakes on

progress in the country," Noboa said on social media on

Wednesday night, in a post showing three surveys with him in the

lead.



Another poll, by Negocios & Estrategias, puts Gonzalez in

first place, with 45% of valid votes compared to 40% for Noboa,

leading to a second round. That survey, conducted with 2,000

people from Jan. 23-25, had a margin of error of 2.2%.



Opinion polls in Ecuador have been "remarkably unreliable"

in recent years, Tellimer Insights said in a note, warning

investors not to lower their guard.



"Our base case remains a Noboa win, though that's far from

assured in our view. If anything, considering the outperformance

of Ecuadorean bonds over the last month and a half, we believe

the market might have grown a tad complacent, and is putting too

much faith in opinion polls," Tellimer said.



Tellimer said its base case scenario is a Noboa lead in the

first round, though without enough margin to avoid a runoff.