Japan's LDP picks new leader to replace outgoing PM Kishida
27/9/2024 6:06
Japan's ruling party will
hold one of the most unpredictable leadership contests in
decades on Friday, a race that could result in Japan's youngest
or first female premier, or see a popular veteran succeed in his
fifth and final leadership bid.
The scramble to replace current premier Fumio Kishida was
sparked in August when he announced his intention to step down
over a series of scandals that plunged the Liberal Democratic
Party's (LDP) ratings to record lows.
Polls suggest three candidates have the edge in a record
nine-strong field: ex-environment minister and heir to a
political dynasty Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; economic security
minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former defence minister Shigeru
Ishiba, 67.
Whoever is chosen must quell anger at home over rising
living costs and navigate a volatile security environment in
East Asia fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and
nuclear-armed North Korea.
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the
post-war era and has a majority in parliament, must hold a
general election by October 2025. If Koizumi wins, he has
pledged to hold a snap election that could come as early as next
month.
"It's safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi will
do quite well, but I really cannot say who out of those three
will win the race," said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at
Tokyo University.
"I don't think we'll know until the very last moment."
The result from the ballot, compromised of votes from each
of the LDP's 368 lawmakers and an equal number distributed among
rank-and-file members, is expected around 1420 JST (0520GMT).
If no candidate secures a simple majority - which is
anticipated due to the wide field - a run-off poll follows
between the two candidates with the most votes.
In the run-off, each lawmaker again gets one vote, but the
share of the rank-and-file drops to 47 votes, one for each of
Japan's prefectures. That result is due at 1530 JST (0630GMT).
Traditionally, powerful party factions have swung in cohort
behind favoured candidates, making it easier to predict who
might prevail.
While the influence of party elders will still play a role,
most of these factions were recently disbanded following a
scandal over unrecorded political donations, making this vote
harder to predict, say analysts.
FRONTRUNNERS
Polls suggest Koizumi, the telegenic son of a former prime
minister who governed between 2001-2006, has the most support
among lawmakers. However some of his campaign pledges, such as
reforming Japan's rigid labour rules, appear to have dented his
grassroots following.
If he prevails, he would become Japan's youngest premier,
surpassing the country's first ever prime minister Ito Hirobumi,
who took office aged 44 in 1885, according to official records.
Ishiba, by contrast, has proved popular among the
rank-and-file but has courted controversy with his peers for
going against the grain and challenging previous leaders, and
has failed in four previous leadership bids. He has said he will
not run again.
Takaichi, a hardline nationalist and advocate of deceased
former premier Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" stimulus policies, could
be the most consequential pick - not least because she would be
the first female prime minister in a male-dominated society.
She has been a vocal critic of the Bank of Japan's efforts
to raise interest rates further away from historic lows, and her
election could spur a yen sell-off, market strategists say.
Her promise to reverse a trend of leaders avoiding the
controversial Yasukuni war shrine if elected, could also sour
relations with China, South Korea and others that view the site
as a symbol of Japan's wartime aggression.
The last Japanese leader to visit the shrine, which
commemorates war dead including those convicted by an Allied
tribunal of war crimes after World War II, was Abe in 2013.
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