Poll shows Liberals and Conservatives tied in BC

24/4/2025 6:10

C anadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, riding high in polls,

looked for support on Wednesday in British Columbia, one of a

few fiercely competitive areas that will help determine the

outcome of Monday's national election.



Carney's Liberals are leading in the most populous provinces

of Ontario and Quebec, after running a campaign focused on

countering U.S. President Donald Trump, while the Conservatives,

led by Pierre Poilievre, dominate the Prairie provinces.



British Columbia's 43 electoral districts, on the other

hand, are among the country's most closely contested

battlegrounds.



"B.C. is important in a way that's kind of similar to the

905, in Ontario, and it's no accident that the leaders are

spending time out here this week," said Richard Johnston, a

retired political science professor at University of British

Columbia. The 905 refers to the greater Toronto area.



Johnston added that the larger number of districts in

Ontario and Quebec makes those provinces the most critical to

winning the election. B.C.'s Lower Mainland and parts of the two

larger provinces could determine whether Carney wins a majority

government or one that relies on other parties to govern, said

Johnston, who doubts the Conservatives' chances of winning.



"I'm asking you to vote with me for positive reasons,

regardless of which party you voted for in the past," Carney

told a crowd in Victoria, a part of B.C. where the New Democrats

have traditionally been strongest.



The Conservatives' tough on crime message appeals to some in

British Columbia, which saw rising voter concerns about crime

and public safety in last year's provincial election, including

the province's pilot project to allow open use of some illegal

drugs.



Poilievre was in southern Ontario on Wednesday, where he

thanked the Toronto Police Association for its endorsement and

announced a plan to dismantle tent cities.



A rolling three-day Nanos poll released on Tuesday put the

Liberals at 44.1% public support nationally, with the

Conservatives at 38.5%. The left-leaning New Democrats trailed

at 7.7%.



If repeated on election day, the Liberals would cap a

dramatic comeback and secure a majority of the House of Commons'

343 seats. The Nanos poll of 1,313 people was carried out from

April 20 to 22 and is considered accurate to within 2.7

percentage points, 19 times out of 20.



The poll placed the Liberals and Conservatives even in B.C.

support.



The decline of support for the third-place NDP could benefit

both the Conservatives where they are competitive, such as on

Vancouver Island, and the Liberals, in Vancouver's eastern and

southeastern suburbs, Johnston said.



"What's interesting about B.C. is that it's the most

difficult province to understand in terms of the polls, of how

we've converged on sort of a statistical tie between the

Conservatives and Liberals," said Sanjay Jeram, senior lecturer

in political science at Simon Fraser University.



"We also see a lot of toss-up ridings."



British Columbians, like Canadians broadly, have focused on

worries about Trump's tariffs and threats of annexation, Jeram

said.