Countries consider defense boosts, closer China ties amid U.S. policy shifts

28/4/2025 6:04

He has

launched an unprecedented global tariff war and slashed U.S.

foreign aid. He has disparaged NATO allies and embraced Russia's

narrative about its invasion of Ukraine. And he has spoken about

annexing Greenland, retaking the Panama Canal and making Canada

the 51st state.



In the chaotic first 100 days since President Donald Trump

returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign

that has upended parts of the rules-based world order that

Washington helped build from the ashes of World War II.



"Trump is much more radical now than he was eight years

ago," said Elliott Abrams, a conservative who served under

Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush before being

appointed U.S. special envoy on Iran and Venezuela in Trump's

first term. "I have been surprised."



Trump's second-term "America First" agenda has alienated

friends and emboldened adversaries while raising questions about

how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that

uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are

responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a

more traditional U.S. president is elected in 2028.



All this comes amid what the Republican president's critics

see as signs of democratic backsliding at home that have raised

concerns abroad. These include verbal attacks on judges, a

pressure campaign against universities and the transfer of

migrants to a notorious El Salvador prison as part of a broader

deportation drive.



"What we're seeing is a huge disruption in world affairs,"

said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic

and Republican administrations. "No one is certain at this point

what to make of what's happening or what will come next."



This assessment of Trump's shakeup of the global system

comes from Reuters interviews with more than a dozen current and

former government officials, foreign diplomats and independent

analysts in Washington and capitals around the world.



Many say that while some of the damage already done could be

long-lasting, the situation may not be beyond repair if Trump

softens his approach. He has already backtracked on some issues,

including the timing and severity of his tariffs.



But they see little chance of a dramatic shift by Trump and

instead expect many countries to make lasting changes in their

relationships with the U.S. to safeguard against his erratic

policy-making.



The fallout has already begun.



Some European allies, for instance, are looking to boost

their own defense industries to reduce reliance on U.S. weapons.

Debate has intensified in South Korea about developing its own

nuclear arsenal. And speculation has grown that deteriorating

relations could prompt U.S. partners to move closer to China, at

least economically.



The White House rejects the notion that Trump has hurt U.S.

credibility, citing instead the need to clean up after what it

calls former President Joe Biden's "feckless leadership" on the

world stage.



"President Trump is taking swift action to address

challenges by bringing both Ukraine and Russia to the

negotiating table to end their war, stemming the flow of

fentanyl and protecting American workers by holding China

accountable, getting Iran to the negotiating table by reimposing

Maximum Pressure," White House National Security Council

spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement.



He said Trump was also "making the Houthis pay for their

terrorism ... and securing our southern border that was open to

invasion for four years."



More than half of Americans, including one in five

Republicans, think Trump is "too closely aligned" with Russia,

and the American public has little appetite for the expansionist

agenda he has laid out, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll

completed on April 21.







HIGH STAKES



At stake, say experts, is the future of a global system that

has taken shape over the past eight decades largely under U.S.

primacy. It has come to be based on free trade, rule of law and

respect for territorial integrity.



But under Trump, who has been scornful of multilateral

organizations and often views global affairs through the

transactional lens of a former real estate developer, that world

order is being shaken up.



Accusing trading partners of "ripping off" the U.S. for

decades, Trump has set in motion a sweeping tariffs policy that

has roiled financial markets, weakened the dollar and triggered

warnings of a slowdown in worldwide economic output and

increased risk of recession.



Trump has called the tariffs necessary "medicine" but his

objectives remain unclear even as his administration works to

negotiate separate deals with dozens of countries.



At the same time, he has all but reversed U.S. policy on

Russia's three-year-old war in Ukraine and engaged in an Oval

Office shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr

Zelenskiy in late February. He has warmed to Moscow and stirred

fears that he will force NATO-backed Kyiv to accept the loss of

territory while he prioritizes improved relations with Russian

President Vladimir Putin.



The administration's belittling of Europe and NATO, long the

central pillar of transatlantic security but accused by Trump

and his aides of freeloading off the U.S., has caused deep

unease.



German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, after winning February's

election, expressed concern about European relations with the

United States, saying it would be difficult if those who put

"America First" actually made their motto "America Alone".



"This really is five minutes to midnight for Europe," Merz

said.



In a further blow to Washington's global image, Trump has

employed expansionist rhetoric long avoided by modern-day

presidents, which some analysts say could be used by China as

justification if it decides to invade self-governed Taiwan.



With his blustery style, he has insisted that the U.S. will

"get" Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish island. He has angered

Canada by saying it has little reason to exist and should become

part of the U.S. He has threatened to seize the Panama Canal,

which was handed over to Panama in 1999. And he has proposed

that Washington take over war-ravaged Gaza and transform the

Palestinian enclave into a Riviera-style resort.



Some analysts say Trump may be seeking to resurrect a Cold

War-style global structure in which big powers carve up

geographic spheres of influence.



Even so, he has offered no details on how the U.S. could

acquire more territory, and some experts suggest he may be

assuming extreme and even over-the-top positions as bargaining

ploys.



But some countries are taking him seriously.



“When you demand to take over a part of the Kingdom of

Denmark’s territory, when we are met by pressure and by threats

from our closest ally, what are we to believe in about the

country that we have admired for so many years?” Danish Prime

Minister Mette Frederiksen told a news conference in Greenland

in early April. "This is about the world order that we have

built together across the Atlantic over generations."



COPING WITH TRUMP 2.0



Other governments are also beginning to recalibrate.



The European Union -- which Trump has claimed, without

evidence, was formed to "screw" the U.S. -- has prepared a range

of retaliatory tariffs if negotiations fail.



Some countries such as Germany and France are looking at

spending more on their militaries, something Trump has demanded

but which could also mean investing more in their own defense

industries and buying fewer arms from the U.S.



With its historic friendship with the U.S. now strained,

Canada is seeking to strengthen economic and security links to

Europe. This comes against the backdrop of Canada's national

elections on Monday dominated by voter resentment of Trump's

actions, which have triggered a nationalist wave and fueled

perceptions that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner.



South Korea, too, has been rattled by Trump's policies,

including his threats to withdraw U.S. troops. But Seoul has

vowed to try to work with Trump and preserve the alliance it

regards as critical against the threat of nuclear-armed North

Korea.



U.S. ally Japan is also on edge. It was taken by surprise by

the magnitude of Trump's tariffs and "is now scrambling to

respond," said a senior Japanese government official close to

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.



A key question is whether some governments will quietly

hedge their bets by forging closer trade ties to China, Trump's

number one tariff target.



Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez met with President Xi

Jinping in Beijing in early April, and China said recently it

exchanged views with the EU on bolstering economic cooperation.



Beijing has cast itself as a solution for nations that feel

bullied by Trump's trade approach, despite its own record of

sometimes predatory practices internationally, and is also

trying to fill the vacuum left by his cuts in humanitarian aid.



Aaron David Miller, a former veteran U.S. diplomat in

Republican and Democratic administrations, said it's not too

late for Trump to shift course on foreign policy, especially if

he begins to feel pressure from fellow Republicans uneasy over

economic risks as they seek to retain control of Congress in

next year's mid-term elections.



If Trump holds firm, the next president could try to

re-establish Washington's role as guarantor of the world order,

but the obstacles could be steep.



"What's happening is not yet beyond the point of no return,"

said Miller, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for

International Peace in Washington. "But how much damage is being

done now to our relations with friends and how much adversaries

will benefit is probably incalculable."