Canada accuses Indian Minister Amit Shah of masterminding violence against Sikhs

31/10/2024 5:59

        Canada's deepening dispute
        with India over its alleged campaign of violence against Sikhs
        in Canada could intensify Indian-based cyber espionage and hold
        back immigration, but analysts and experts see no immediate
        impact on trade.
        
        Concern about a widening rift between the two countries
        comes after a senior Canadian official told a parliamentary
        national security committee on Tuesday that Indian Minister of
        Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra
        Modi, was the mastermind behind the alleged plots.
        
        While Indian officials dismissed the official's statement,
        the disclosure might worsen a dispute that started a year ago
        when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cited credible evidence
        linking Indian agents to the June 2023 shooting of Sikh leader
        Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
        
        In response, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats earlier
        this month, accusing them of involvement. Four men have been
        charged with his murder.
        
        The Canadian signals intelligence agency that monitors
        foreign-based cyber threats said New Delhi was most likely
        already conducting threatening cyber activity against Canadian
        networks for spying purposes.
        
        "As Canada and India potentially may have some tensions, it
        is possible that we may see India want to flex those cyber
        threat actions against Canadians," Caroline Xavier, head of the
        agency, known as Communications Security Establishment Canada,
        told a Wednesday press conference. The agency has previously
        described India as an emerging threat.
        
        On the diplomatic front, Ottawa is unlikely to take more
        punitive steps until more details of the Nijjar case emerge,
        said Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific
        Foundation of Canada think tank.
        
        Cabinet ministers are due to testify about the matter to the
        national security committee and the murder trial of the four men
        has yet to start, she noted.
        
        "If there are charges laid in the process on individuals
        that are living in India at whatever level, then it would
        trigger an extradition process which could take years. And of
        course, India is unlikely to cooperate," she said.
        
        Officials working for Trudeau and Foreign Minister Melanie
        Joly did not respond to requests for comment about what steps
        Ottawa might take next.
        
        India is the top source for temporary foreign workers and
        international students coming to Canada but a backlog of
        applications has built since Trudeau's allegations last year.
        
        Canada only has four immigration officials left in India,
        down from 27 in October 2023. This affects Canada's ability to
        process visas on-site, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said.
        
        "I have told my colleagues in Parliament that this could get
        worse before it gets better, and they need to brace for it," he
        said in an interview last Friday.
        
        That could mean fewer people traveling between the countries
        for legitimate reasons, he said.
        
        
        
        TRADE RELATIONS
        
        India is Canada's 10th largest trading partner and New Delhi
        has made clear it does not want flows to be hit. Nadjibulla's
        foundation carried out a study showing Trudeau's statement in
        October 2023 had little or no effect on bilateral trade.
        
        "Whether that would be the case now I think it's a bigger
        question mark, because the disruption is on a bigger scale, and
        we are still not, I don't believe, at the bottom of this," she
        said by phone.
        
        Canada is the biggest exporter of pulses, such as lentils,
        to India. Pulse Canada President Greg Cherewyk, asked about the
        potential impact of the diplomatic dispute, cited the strength
        of the relationship.
        
        "In a time of stubborn food price inflation and strong
        demand for pulse crops, we are confident that affordability and
        availability will continue to drive decision-making at a
        government level," he said in a statement.
        
        "We have thankfully not seen the political tensions affect
        trade," said Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian
        Agri-Food Trade Alliance. "India and Canada have great potential
        in their trading relationship and CAFTA hopes we can work back
        to positive trade discussions."