Countries consider defense boosts, closer China ties amid U.S. policy shifts
28/4/2025 6:04
He has
launched an unprecedented global tariff war and slashed U.S.
foreign aid. He has disparaged NATO allies and embraced Russia's
narrative about its invasion of Ukraine. And he has spoken about
annexing Greenland, retaking the Panama Canal and making Canada
the 51st state.
In the chaotic first 100 days since President Donald Trump
returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign
that has upended parts of the rules-based world order that
Washington helped build from the ashes of World War II.
"Trump is much more radical now than he was eight years
ago," said Elliott Abrams, a conservative who served under
Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush before being
appointed U.S. special envoy on Iran and Venezuela in Trump's
first term. "I have been surprised."
Trump's second-term "America First" agenda has alienated
friends and emboldened adversaries while raising questions about
how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that
uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are
responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a
more traditional U.S. president is elected in 2028.
All this comes amid what the Republican president's critics
see as signs of democratic backsliding at home that have raised
concerns abroad. These include verbal attacks on judges, a
pressure campaign against universities and the transfer of
migrants to a notorious El Salvador prison as part of a broader
deportation drive.
"What we're seeing is a huge disruption in world affairs,"
said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic
and Republican administrations. "No one is certain at this point
what to make of what's happening or what will come next."
This assessment of Trump's shakeup of the global system
comes from Reuters interviews with more than a dozen current and
former government officials, foreign diplomats and independent
analysts in Washington and capitals around the world.
Many say that while some of the damage already done could be
long-lasting, the situation may not be beyond repair if Trump
softens his approach. He has already backtracked on some issues,
including the timing and severity of his tariffs.
But they see little chance of a dramatic shift by Trump and
instead expect many countries to make lasting changes in their
relationships with the U.S. to safeguard against his erratic
policy-making.
The fallout has already begun.
Some European allies, for instance, are looking to boost
their own defense industries to reduce reliance on U.S. weapons.
Debate has intensified in South Korea about developing its own
nuclear arsenal. And speculation has grown that deteriorating
relations could prompt U.S. partners to move closer to China, at
least economically.
The White House rejects the notion that Trump has hurt U.S.
credibility, citing instead the need to clean up after what it
calls former President Joe Biden's "feckless leadership" on the
world stage.
"President Trump is taking swift action to address
challenges by bringing both Ukraine and Russia to the
negotiating table to end their war, stemming the flow of
fentanyl and protecting American workers by holding China
accountable, getting Iran to the negotiating table by reimposing
Maximum Pressure," White House National Security Council
spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement.
He said Trump was also "making the Houthis pay for their
terrorism ... and securing our southern border that was open to
invasion for four years."
More than half of Americans, including one in five
Republicans, think Trump is "too closely aligned" with Russia,
and the American public has little appetite for the expansionist
agenda he has laid out, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll
completed on April 21.
HIGH STAKES
At stake, say experts, is the future of a global system that
has taken shape over the past eight decades largely under U.S.
primacy. It has come to be based on free trade, rule of law and
respect for territorial integrity.
But under Trump, who has been scornful of multilateral
organizations and often views global affairs through the
transactional lens of a former real estate developer, that world
order is being shaken up.
Accusing trading partners of "ripping off" the U.S. for
decades, Trump has set in motion a sweeping tariffs policy that
has roiled financial markets, weakened the dollar and triggered
warnings of a slowdown in worldwide economic output and
increased risk of recession.
Trump has called the tariffs necessary "medicine" but his
objectives remain unclear even as his administration works to
negotiate separate deals with dozens of countries.
At the same time, he has all but reversed U.S. policy on
Russia's three-year-old war in Ukraine and engaged in an Oval
Office shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy in late February. He has warmed to Moscow and stirred
fears that he will force NATO-backed Kyiv to accept the loss of
territory while he prioritizes improved relations with Russian
President Vladimir Putin.
The administration's belittling of Europe and NATO, long the
central pillar of transatlantic security but accused by Trump
and his aides of freeloading off the U.S., has caused deep
unease.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, after winning February's
election, expressed concern about European relations with the
United States, saying it would be difficult if those who put
"America First" actually made their motto "America Alone".
"This really is five minutes to midnight for Europe," Merz
said.
In a further blow to Washington's global image, Trump has
employed expansionist rhetoric long avoided by modern-day
presidents, which some analysts say could be used by China as
justification if it decides to invade self-governed Taiwan.
With his blustery style, he has insisted that the U.S. will
"get" Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish island. He has angered
Canada by saying it has little reason to exist and should become
part of the U.S. He has threatened to seize the Panama Canal,
which was handed over to Panama in 1999. And he has proposed
that Washington take over war-ravaged Gaza and transform the
Palestinian enclave into a Riviera-style resort.
Some analysts say Trump may be seeking to resurrect a Cold
War-style global structure in which big powers carve up
geographic spheres of influence.
Even so, he has offered no details on how the U.S. could
acquire more territory, and some experts suggest he may be
assuming extreme and even over-the-top positions as bargaining
ploys.
But some countries are taking him seriously.
“When you demand to take over a part of the Kingdom of
Denmark’s territory, when we are met by pressure and by threats
from our closest ally, what are we to believe in about the
country that we have admired for so many years?” Danish Prime
Minister Mette Frederiksen told a news conference in Greenland
in early April. "This is about the world order that we have
built together across the Atlantic over generations."
COPING WITH TRUMP 2.0
Other governments are also beginning to recalibrate.
The European Union -- which Trump has claimed, without
evidence, was formed to "screw" the U.S. -- has prepared a range
of retaliatory tariffs if negotiations fail.
Some countries such as Germany and France are looking at
spending more on their militaries, something Trump has demanded
but which could also mean investing more in their own defense
industries and buying fewer arms from the U.S.
With its historic friendship with the U.S. now strained,
Canada is seeking to strengthen economic and security links to
Europe. This comes against the backdrop of Canada's national
elections on Monday dominated by voter resentment of Trump's
actions, which have triggered a nationalist wave and fueled
perceptions that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner.
South Korea, too, has been rattled by Trump's policies,
including his threats to withdraw U.S. troops. But Seoul has
vowed to try to work with Trump and preserve the alliance it
regards as critical against the threat of nuclear-armed North
Korea.
U.S. ally Japan is also on edge. It was taken by surprise by
the magnitude of Trump's tariffs and "is now scrambling to
respond," said a senior Japanese government official close to
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
A key question is whether some governments will quietly
hedge their bets by forging closer trade ties to China, Trump's
number one tariff target.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez met with President Xi
Jinping in Beijing in early April, and China said recently it
exchanged views with the EU on bolstering economic cooperation.
Beijing has cast itself as a solution for nations that feel
bullied by Trump's trade approach, despite its own record of
sometimes predatory practices internationally, and is also
trying to fill the vacuum left by his cuts in humanitarian aid.
Aaron David Miller, a former veteran U.S. diplomat in
Republican and Democratic administrations, said it's not too
late for Trump to shift course on foreign policy, especially if
he begins to feel pressure from fellow Republicans uneasy over
economic risks as they seek to retain control of Congress in
next year's mid-term elections.
If Trump holds firm, the next president could try to
re-establish Washington's role as guarantor of the world order,
but the obstacles could be steep.
"What's happening is not yet beyond the point of no return,"
said Miller, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in Washington. "But how much damage is being
done now to our relations with friends and how much adversaries
will benefit is probably incalculable."
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