Two months into Iran war, economic strain mounts across emerging markets

Two months since the outbreak of the Iran war, the charts below show how the economic toll is spreading beyond the Middle East, with emerging and developing markets facing rising inflation, growing fiscal strains and trade disruptions.



Middle East nations and those nearby are seeing the most direct economic hit.



Qatar posted its first ever trade deficit at $1.2 billion in March after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz slashed exports by more than 90% and halved imports. JPMorgan economists expect Qatar's economy to shrink 9% this year following damage to an LNG plant, deeper than the IMF's minus 6.1% forecast for Iran.

The Fund cut growth projections for emerging and developing economies as a group to 3.9% from 4.2% and this month's IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington included stark warnings.



"A full-fledged impact is coming and it is not far away," Qatar Finance Minister Ali Ahmed Al-Kuwari told the event.



Emerging Asian markets are particularly vulnerable as more than 50% of crude imports and more than a third of gas imports traditionally come through the Strait of Hormuz.



However, further away producers have benefited from higher crude prices. Brazil and Kazakhstan's currencies strengthened more than 9% year-to-date and emerging market stocks have bounced back to record highs, though tech-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan added to the boost.